當(dāng)?shù)貢r(shí)間11月6日，由中國(guó)金融四十人論壇（CF40）與彼得森國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)研究所（PIIE）共同舉辦的第五屆CF40-PIIE中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)論壇在美國(guó)華盛頓舉行，中美經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家對(duì)中國(guó)金融創(chuàng)新與中美貿(mào)易爭(zhēng)端等話題進(jìn)行了深入研討。

　　在以“大國(guó)貿(mào)易沖突的邊界及接觸原則”為主題的專題研討環(huán)節(jié)，CF40學(xué)術(shù)委員、安信證券首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家高善文以Let Histoty Brighten the Future(讓歷史照亮未來(lái))為題，探討了更好管理中美經(jīng)貿(mào)關(guān)系、助益雙方談判取得互利結(jié)果的有效途徑。

　　高善文發(fā)表主題演講

　　高善文認(rèn)為，貿(mào)易爭(zhēng)端中最令人擔(dān)心的是中美之間的不信任感和相互誤解廣泛存在，并且近年來(lái)日益嚴(yán)重。一旦不信任感的日漸加深與經(jīng)貿(mào)脫鉤的加速發(fā)展形成惡性循環(huán)，人們將受困于一個(gè)碎片化的世界。

　　“在這種背景下，討論如何更好地處理貿(mào)易爭(zhēng)端和未來(lái)的中美經(jīng)濟(jì)關(guān)系、防止或減少上述情況的發(fā)生是非常重要的。關(guān)于這一點(diǎn)，歷史可能會(huì)為我們提供有助益的參考。”高善文提出。

　　1949年，美國(guó)選擇與新成立的中華人民共和國(guó)對(duì)抗，隨后在朝鮮半島和越南與中國(guó)作戰(zhàn)，事后看來(lái)，這造成了兩國(guó)間的重大悲劇。但其后兩國(guó)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人的勇氣和智慧改變了歷史，雙方克服分歧和爭(zhēng)端來(lái)建立互信。高善文認(rèn)為，目前兩國(guó)仍有廣泛的共同利益，“在現(xiàn)在這樣一個(gè)動(dòng)蕩的時(shí)期，這些利益應(yīng)該被明確地指出，并小心地維護(hù)。在這一背景下來(lái)看，貿(mào)易爭(zhēng)端至少在原則上是可管理的。”

　　高善文還就如何更好管理中美經(jīng)貿(mào)關(guān)系、助益雙方談判取得互利結(jié)果提出了多項(xiàng)建議，演講全文如下（中文版由CF40獨(dú)家翻譯，英文版附后）：

　　讓歷史照亮未來(lái)

　　文 | 高善文

　　很榮幸在此與大家討論如此重要而又難解的話題——如何更好地處理中美貿(mào)易爭(zhēng)端。

　　讓我先講一個(gè)故事。在2018年1月貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)正在這里被醞釀之際，我有幸與中國(guó)金融四十人論壇成員一道訪問(wèn)了華盛頓特區(qū)。當(dāng)時(shí)，華盛頓特區(qū)的人們對(duì)中國(guó)有很多不滿——人們普遍認(rèn)為貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)幾乎是不可避免的，對(duì)中國(guó)滿是負(fù)面情緒。

　　基于當(dāng)時(shí)訪美的所見(jiàn)所得，我于2018年年中在中國(guó)發(fā)表了幾次演講，試圖通過(guò)及時(shí)且客觀的方式來(lái)介紹和總結(jié)當(dāng)前沖突的邏輯，并在必要時(shí)解釋美國(guó)的立場(chǎng)。

　　我傳達(dá)的信息讓大多數(shù)聽(tīng)眾感到震驚，甚至不敢相信。在移動(dòng)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)和即時(shí)通信的時(shí)代，信息輕易可得，那些聽(tīng)眾的反應(yīng)令人困惑。

　　但是，這個(gè)故事中最讓我擔(dān)心的地方，是中美之間的誤解和不信任如此廣泛，并且近年來(lái)日益嚴(yán)重。

　　一種可能是，隨著中國(guó)迅速攀升至價(jià)值鏈上游，其GDP規(guī)模也在不斷壯大，這會(huì)導(dǎo)致彼此之間更加不信任和互相猜疑。隨之而來(lái)的是更多的爭(zhēng)執(zhí)和沖突，脫鉤開(kāi)始出現(xiàn)并加速發(fā)展。反過(guò)來(lái)，不信任感進(jìn)一步加深，從而形成惡性循環(huán)。最終，我們將受困于一個(gè)碎片化的世界。不夸張地說(shuō)，這個(gè)世界的安全性和富裕程度會(huì)降低。

　　在這種背景下，討論如何更好地處理貿(mào)易爭(zhēng)端和未來(lái)的中美經(jīng)濟(jì)關(guān)系、防止或減少上述情況的發(fā)生是非常重要的。關(guān)于這一點(diǎn)，歷史可能會(huì)為我們提供有助益的參考。

　　1949年，美國(guó)選擇與新成立的中華人民共和國(guó)對(duì)抗，隨后在朝鮮半島和越南與中國(guó)作戰(zhàn)，事后看來(lái)，這也造成了兩國(guó)間的重大悲劇。兩國(guó)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人的勇氣和智慧改變了歷史，尼克松總統(tǒng)于1970年代初訪問(wèn)了北京，當(dāng)時(shí)中國(guó)仍沉迷于搞文化大革命。一夜之間，世界變得更加安全，也逐漸走向和平與繁榮。

　　這給我們上了關(guān)鍵的一課：我們可以克服分歧和爭(zhēng)端來(lái)建立互信，追求我們的共同目標(biāo)并發(fā)展我們的共同利益。

　　自那時(shí)起，世界上發(fā)生一系列變化——蘇聯(lián)成為歷史、中國(guó)發(fā)展成為世界第二大經(jīng)濟(jì)體，并且仍在快速發(fā)展。

　　然而，兩國(guó)仍有廣泛的共同利益。在現(xiàn)在這樣一個(gè)動(dòng)蕩的時(shí)期，這些利益應(yīng)該被明確地指出，并小心地維護(hù)。在這一背景下來(lái)看，貿(mào)易爭(zhēng)端至少在原則上是可管理的。

　　舉例來(lái)說(shuō)，氣候變化正在對(duì)地球構(gòu)成越來(lái)越大的威脅。如果沒(méi)有美中兩國(guó)的合作和領(lǐng)導(dǎo)，幾乎不可能阻止氣候變暖的趨勢(shì)，更不用說(shuō)履行《巴黎協(xié)定》的承諾。

　　正如我們所知，自由貿(mào)易是促進(jìn)財(cái)富創(chuàng)造的最佳方式，而基于規(guī)則的全球體系則是維護(hù)自由貿(mào)易的最佳機(jī)制。如果沒(méi)有美中兩國(guó)的合作和領(lǐng)導(dǎo)，基于規(guī)則的全球體系可能會(huì)瓦解。

　　這樣的例子還有很多，我們僅舉幾個(gè)。

　　至于貿(mào)易爭(zhēng)端，盡管美國(guó)提出的一些主張和案例缺乏說(shuō)服力，但總體而言，它們是可以解決的，中國(guó)也非常愿意這樣做。

　　例如，隨著中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的日益成熟，更好地保護(hù)知識(shí)產(chǎn)權(quán)也符合中國(guó)的利益，中國(guó)在這一領(lǐng)域的努力和進(jìn)展應(yīng)該像PIIE所做的那樣，得到充分的認(rèn)可和公正的記錄。

　　另一個(gè)例子是強(qiáng)制技術(shù)轉(zhuǎn)讓。許多中國(guó)學(xué)者認(rèn)為這個(gè)問(wèn)題的定義模糊，表述缺乏說(shuō)服力，但中國(guó)仍然愿意考慮妥協(xié)。

　　有關(guān)雙邊貿(mào)易逆差的要求在經(jīng)濟(jì)界人士看來(lái)是荒謬的，采購(gòu)清單也是不現(xiàn)實(shí)的，但中國(guó)在這一問(wèn)題上仍持靈活態(tài)度。

　　如上所述，鑒于中美關(guān)系的重要性和復(fù)雜性以及貿(mào)易爭(zhēng)端的性質(zhì)，為了更好地管理和加強(qiáng)經(jīng)濟(jì)關(guān)系，以下是一些建議：

　　? 中美經(jīng)濟(jì)合作仍然是兩國(guó)關(guān)系的重要壓艙石，是互利互惠的，應(yīng)該認(rèn)真珍惜和維護(hù)。

　　? 貿(mào)易爭(zhēng)端永遠(yuǎn)不應(yīng)被政治化，而應(yīng)被視為商業(yè)、可談判的事項(xiàng)。

　　? 要采取必要措施，防止?fàn)幎寺�延到其他領(lǐng)域，進(jìn)而損害兩國(guó)互信和政治關(guān)系。

　　? 以有說(shuō)服力的事實(shí)研究、可靠的成本收益分析方法和可行的解決方案支持我們的訴求和要求。為了讓信息得以有效傳遞，要改善中美彼此之間的溝通，以及與公眾的溝通。

　　? 可以采取更加務(wù)實(shí)和漸進(jìn)的方法，首先解決容易解決的部分，因?yàn)橛嘘P(guān)產(chǎn)業(yè)政策和國(guó)家干預(yù)的問(wèn)題很難得到快速調(diào)和。

　　? 我們應(yīng)該將這些重要的多邊問(wèn)題放到多邊平臺(tái)上解決。這樣可以使得讓步和執(zhí)行變得更加容易。更重要的是，這或許將有助于世界貿(mào)易組織改革，并有助于在全球化受到日益高漲的民粹主義挑戰(zhàn)的關(guān)鍵時(shí)刻，維護(hù)和保持全球化勢(shì)頭。

　　Let History Brighten the Future

　　Gao Shanwen

　　It is my pleasure to discuss so important and difficult a topic of how to better manage Sino-US trade disputes.

　　Let me start by telling a story. In January 2018, I have had the chance to visit DC with CF40 group just when the trade war was being conceived here. Back then people in DC had quite a lot of complaints about China—it was widely thought that a trade war was all but inevitable and the sentiment against China was very negative.

　　Based on this experience and information picked up here, I delivered several speeches in China in the middle of 2018, trying to summarize and present the logic of the ongoing conflicts in a timely and objective way, explaining the positions of the US when necessary.

　　Most audience was just shocked by the message I conveyed and could not believe it. At the age of mobile internet and instant communication when information is easily available, the reactions from those audience is confusing.

　　However, what really worried me most in this story is that misunderstanding and mistrust between China and US run so deep and have been increasingly so in recent years.

　　One scenario is that as China rapidly climbs up the value chain and grows bigger in its size of GDP, resulting in deeper mistrust and suspicion of each other. More disputes and conflicts then follow, decoupling occurs and accelerates, and in turn mistrust is further entrenched, creating a vicious circle. Eventually we will be trapped in a fragmented world, which is less secure and less rich, to say the least.

　　Against this background, it is very important to discuss how to better manage the trade disputes and Sino-US economic relationship in the future, to prevent the scenario above mentioned from happening, or at least lessen its degree. Regarding this, history may provide helpful lessons.

　　In 1949, the U.S. turned its back on the newly-born PRC and fought a war with China in the Korean peninsula and later in Vietnam, which was a big tragedy for both countries in hindsight. With great courage and wisdom of the leadership from both countries, President Nixon visited Beijing in early 1970s when China was still obsessed with the Cultural Revolution, and overnight the world became safer and gradually more peaceful and prosperous.

　　The key lesson here is that we can overcome the differences and disputes to build trust, pursue our common goal, and grow our shared interests.

　　Ever since then the world has changed. The Soviet Union went into history and China has evolved into the second largest economy and is still growing fast.

　　However, the two countries still share widespread common interests, which shall be clearly identified and delicately preserved at this turbulent time, while the disputes in trade is well manageable at least in principle.

　　For example, climate change poses an increasing threat to the planet. Without cooperation and leadership from the US and China, it is almost impossible to arrest the warming-up trend, let alone fulfilling the commitment of the Paris Accord.

　　As we know, free trade is the best way to enhance wealth creation and a global rule-based system is the best regime to promote it. Without cooperation and leadership from the US and China, the global rule-based system may disintegrate.

　　The list can go very long and we just name a few.

　　As for the trade disputes, though some claims and cases presented by the US are less convincing than others, overall speaking, they are solvable and China is more than willing to do so.

　　For instance, as the Chinese economy becomes more sophisticated, better IPR protection serves China's interests as well, and China's efforts and progress in this field shall be well recognized and fairly documented, as have been done by PIIE.

　　Another example is forced technology transfer. Many Chinese scholars think the case is ill-defined and poorly presented, but China is still willing to compromise.

　　The demand concerning bilateral trade deficits sounds absurd to economic professionals and purchase list appears unrealistic, but China is still flexible on this issue.

　　As mentioned above, given the importance and complexity of Sino-US relationship and the nature of the trade disputes, to better manage and strengthen the economic relationship, here are some suggestions:

　　We shall emphasize that Sino-US economic cooperation is still an important ballast of the bilateral relationship, which is mutually beneficial and shall be carefully cherished and maintained.

　　We shall stress that the trade disputes shall never ever be politicized and shall always be taken as a commercial, negotiable matter.

　　We shall take necessary measures to prevent the disputes from spilling over into other fields and impairing mutual trust and political sentiment further.

　　We shall always support our claims and demands with convincing fact-based research, robust cost benefit analysis, and feasible solutions. In order to let the message be delivered, we shall improve communication with each other and with the public.

　　We could take a more pragmatic and incremental approach and start by solving the easy part first, as those issues concerning industrial policy and state interventions are very hard to conciliate soon.

　　We shall take those essentially multilateral issues to multilateral platforms, whereby concessions and enforcement could be easier to arrange. More importantly, this may contribute to WTO reform and help sustain the globalization momentum in this critical time when it is challenged by rising populism.

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